Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.